R&D / Seed Intelligence
Genetic lines, progeny trials, nurseries and planting-material decisionsAll operations
Seed & breeding pipeline
Fictitious genetic lines · illustrative trial resultsReleased varieties
3
+ 27 progenies in trial
Active trials
5
8,180 recorded palms
Seed batches (120 d)
14
342,000 seeds sown
Avg germination
85.1%
Completed batches · target ≥ 85%
Batches below expected
1
Heat-treatment excursion
Seedlings in nursery
234,900
8 blocks ≥ 20 yrs in scope
Variety A / B / C across environments
FFB yield · progeny-trial means, years 6–10
G×E interaction
FFB yield t/ha, years 6–10 · darker = higher · hover for % vs environment mean
| Mineral / wet | Peat | Drought-prone | Ganoderma-prone | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variety A (PA-Tenera 201) | 31.6 | 25.9 | 22.3 | 23.2 |
| Variety B (PA-Tenera 305) | 29.7 | 27.3 | 25.8 | 24.1 |
| Variety C (DxP Line 7 (GT)) | 30.3 | 25.0 | 23.4 | 27.6 |
Rank changes across environments (crossover interaction) mean no single variety is best everywhere — Variety A leads on mineral soils, B on peat and drought-prone sites, C on Ganoderma-prone replants.
Variety Recommendation by environment G×E mixed model
Planting-material decision support for replanting and new plantings
Why Variety C for ganoderma-prone replant
Confidence82%Ganoderma incidence 3.9% vs 14.6% (A) at year 10 on replant sites — protects stand density and cumulative yield.
Runner-up: Variety B (PA-Tenera 305). Sites: Estate B/E 2nd–3rd generation replants. Expected FFB yield 27.6 t/ha vs 24.1 t/ha.
Recommendation requires validation by the Breeding Committee before seed allocation.
Top drivers (t FFB/ha advantage vs runner-up)
Ganoderma tolerance (G)
+2.1 t
Stand density retained
+0.9 t
Replant inoculum (E)
−0.5 t
OER potential
−0.3 t
◀ lowers predictionraises ▶
Field performance by palm age
FFB t/ha by year after planting · mineral soil commercial blocks
Disease & stress resistance
Scorecard 0–100 (higher = more resistant) · trial & nursery screening
| Trait | Variety A | Variety B | Variety C |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ganoderma (BSR) | 38 | 51 | 84★ |
| Drought / water deficit | 52 | 81★ | 60 |
| Bagworm defoliation | 55 | 58★ | 57 |
| Fusarium wilt | 72 | 70 | 76★ |
| Crown disease | 64 | 69 | 71★ |
| OER potential (bunch analysis) | 26.4% | 25.7% | 25.1% |
| Height increment | 62 cm/yr | 55 cm/yr | 48 cm/yr |
Trial Analysis Automated ANOVA + G×E
Progeny & variety trials · leading entry, yield advantage and statistical significance
| Trial | Site | Environment | Design | Planted | Palms | Entries | Leading | Yield adv. | p-value | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PT-EA-11 | Estate A · Div 1 | Mineral / wet | RCBD, 4 reps | 2016 | 1,440 | A, B, C + 9 progenies | Variety A | +6.4% | 0.012 | SignificantActive |
| PT-EB-07 | Estate B · Div 2 | Ganoderma-prone | RCBD, 5 reps | 2015 | 1,800 | A, B, C + 6 GT progenies | Variety C | +14.5% | 0.004 | SignificantReporting |
| PT-EC-03 | Estate C · Div 1 | Peat | RCBD, 3 reps | 2018 | 1,080 | A, B, C | Variety B | +5.4% | 0.087 | Not yet sig.Active |
| PT-EC-05 | Estate C · Div 2 | Drought-prone | Alpha-lattice, 4 reps | 2017 | 1,620 | A, B, C + 12 progenies | Variety B | +10.2% | 0.009 | SignificantActive |
| PT-ED-02 | Estate D · Div 1 | Peat | RCBD, 3 reps | 2019 | 960 | A, B, C | Variety B | +3.1% | 0.210 | Not yet sig.Active |
| PT-EE-04 | Estate E · Div 1 | Ganoderma-prone | RCBD, 4 reps | 2014 | 1,280 | A, C | Variety C | +16.8% | 0.002 | SignificantClosed |
Trial analysis summary
Confidence77%4 of 6 trials show a statistically significant leader. Peat trials (PT-EC-03, PT-ED-02) favour Variety B but are not yet significant — recommend 2 more recording years or adding a third peat site before a peat-specific recommendation is locked.
Seed Performance Prediction — replanting candidates Seed Performance v1.0
Blocks ≥ 20 years old in scope · predicted mature yield (years 6–10) of the best-fit variety
| Block | Estate | Palm age | Soil / risk context | Current yield | Recommended | Predicted yield | vs runner-up | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B42 | Estate E | 28 yrs | Ultisol (clay loam) | 14.5 t/ha | Variety C | 27.6 t/ha | +3.5 | |
| B46 | Estate E | 27 yrs | Alluvial · Ganoderma 44% | 14.3 t/ha | Variety C | 27.6 t/ha | +3.5 | |
| B48 | Estate E | 26 yrs | Ultisol (clay loam) | 15.8 t/ha | Variety C | 27.6 t/ha | +3.5 | |
| B44 | Estate E | 25 yrs | Inceptisol | 16.9 t/ha | Variety C | 27.6 t/ha | +3.5 | |
| B41 | Estate E | 23 yrs | Inceptisol | 19.7 t/ha | Variety A | 31.6 t/ha | +1.3 | |
| B43 | Estate E | 22 yrs | Ultisol (clay loam) | 20.3 t/ha | Variety A | 31.6 t/ha | +1.3 | |
| B12 | Estate B | 20 yrs | Ultisol (clay loam) · Ganoderma 58% | 22.7 t/ha | Variety C | 27.6 t/ha | +3.5 | |
| B22 | Estate C | 20 yrs | Shallow peat · rain deficit 22% | 18.0 t/ha | Variety B | 27.3 t/ha | +1.4 |
Nurseries & germination
Sumatra Central Nursery (Estate A)
NUR-SUM-1 · capacity 180,000 seedlings
Culling 8.6%
Utilisation80%
Pre-nursery
46,200
Main nursery
98,400
Field-ready
31,200
Dispatch plan: Replant B42, B46, B48 (Estate E) — Q1 2027
Kalimantan Nursery (Estate D)
NUR-KAL-1 · capacity 120,000 seedlings
Culling 10.9%
Utilisation75%
Pre-nursery
28,800
Main nursery
61,500
Field-ready
12,400
Dispatch plan: Supply + infill Estates C & D — Q2 2027
Nursery germination batch tracker Germination Prediction
Sown seed batches · actual vs expected germination · prediction for batches still germinating
| Batch | Variety | Nursery | Seeds | Sown | Expected | Actual / predicted | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SB-2603-03 | Variety A | NUR-SUM-1 | 22,000 | 118 d ago | 86% | 87.5% | Completed |
| SB-2603-04 | Variety B | NUR-SUM-1 | 26,000 | 104 d ago | 87% | 85.5% | Completed |
| SB-2603-05 | Variety C | NUR-SUM-1 | 25,000 | 96 d ago | 84% | 84% | Completed |
| SB-2604-06 | Variety A | NUR-KAL-1 | 32,000 | 88 d ago | 86% | 84.4% | Completed |
| SB-2604-07 | Variety B | NUR-SUM-1 | 26,000 | 75 d ago | 87% | 85.8% | Completed |
| SB-2604-08 | Variety C | NUR-SUM-1 | 20,000 | 67 d ago | 84% | 83.2% | Completed |
| SB-2605-09 | Variety A | NUR-SUM-1 | 29,000 | 59 d ago | 86% | 84% | Completed |
| SB-2605-10 | Variety B | NUR-KAL-1 | 23,000 | 46 d ago | 87% | 86.1% | Completed |
| SB-2605-11 | Variety C | NUR-SUM-1 | 19,000 | 38 d ago | 84% | pred.83.3%88% | Germinating |
| SB-2606-12 | Variety A | NUR-SUM-1 | 29,000 | 31 d ago | 86% | pred.86.7%83% | Germinating |
| SB-2606-13 | Variety B | NUR-SUM-1 | 24,000 | 24 d ago | 87% | pred.88.3%80% | Germinating |
| SB-2606-14 | Variety C | NUR-KAL-1 | 18,000 | 17 d ago | 84% | 71.2% | Below expected |
| SB-2607-15 | Variety A | NUR-SUM-1 | 20,000 | 11 d ago | 86% | pred.84.2%83% | Germinating |
| SB-2607-16 | Variety B | NUR-SUM-1 | 29,000 | 6 d ago | 87% | pred.88.7%85% | Germinating |
Anomaly: batch SB-2606-14
Variety C · Seed garden SG-3 (GT selection) · NUR-KAL-1
medium
Expected 84% → predicted 72.5%
Heat-treatment temp excursion (41 °C, 18 h)
−7.8 pp
Seed moisture at dispatch 16.1% (spec 18–20%)
−4.1 pp
Storage age 9 weeks
−1.6 pp
Seed garden SG-3 parent vigour
+0.5 pp
Pre-nursery humidity
−0.4 pp
◀ lowers predictionraises ▶
AI Insight
Confidence86%Germination is tracking 11.5 pp below the expected profile. The heat-treatment log shows a 41 °C excursion for 18 h and seed moisture was below spec. ≈ 2,070 fewer seedlings for the Q1 2027 replanting pipeline. Recommended: Hold batch; tetrazolium viability re-test; calibrate heat-treatment chamber HT-2; top-up sowing from SG-3 reserve.