Critical
Area43.4 ha
Age20 yr
VarietyPA-Tenera 305
Forecast17.3 t/ha
Gap−21.0%
Harvest round10 d
Nettle caterpillar24%
NDVI0.65
Replant rank#7 of 50
AI Yield Prediction
Yield Prediction v4.1 · gradient-boosted trees · retrained monthly
Confidence82%
Predicted FFB
17.3
t/ha · next 12 m
Target
21.9
t/ha · budget
Gap
−21.0%
−4.6 t/ha vs target
Predicted (next 12 m)
17.3
Target
21.9
Actual (last 12 m)
18.0
Feature contribution (SHAP, t/ha)
vs portfolio baselineRainfall deficit (3-mo lag)
−0.7
Fertilizer timing
−0.6
Soil moisture
−0.3
Palm age / maturity
−0.3
Harvesting interval
−0.3
Disease / pest pressure
−0.2
Vegetation index (NDVI)
−0.1
◀ lowers predictionraises ▶
Model features
13 inputs used for this prediction · current values
Palm age20 yr (planted 2006)
Historical yield18.0 t/ha (rolling 12 m)
Rainfall (30 d)156 mm
Rainfall lag (3-mo)−22% vs normal
Temperature27.9 °C mean max
Soil moisture0.20 m³/m³
Fertilizer application2 round(s) late
Harvesting interval10 days
Planting density136 palms/ha
Soil characteristicsShallow peat
Pest incidents1 logged (12 m)
Vegetation indexNDVI 0.65
SeasonalityPeak crop (Sep–Nov index 1.17)
AI recommendations
Ranked by expected yield recovery
Why B22 is below plan
Confidence82%Forecast 17.3 vs 21.9 t/ha (−21.0%). Largest negative driver: Rainfall deficit (3-mo lag) (-0.67 t/ha). Recommended actions below are ranked by expected recovery.
1+0.4 t/ha
Moisture conservation
Spread EFB mulch (40 t/ha) in inter-rows; prioritise K to support drought tolerance.
2+0.4 t/ha
Apply delayed K round
MOP 1.75 kg/palm + borate within 14 days; confirm NPK stock at WH-03.
3+0.2 t/ha
Water-table management
Close canal blocks to retain water; monitor soil moisture probes.
4+0.2 t/ha
Restore 10-day harvest round
Current 10-day round increases loose fruit and overripe bunches; add 1 harvesting gang.
Decision support — agronomist validation required
Location & neighbours
Estate C blocks · colour = health status
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Block attributes
Master data, sensors, satellite and field records
Identity & stand
Block IDB22
Estate · divisionEstate C · Division 1
Planted area43.4 ha
Planted year · age2006 · 20 yr
VarietyPA-Tenera 305
Palm population5,832 (136/ha)
Water & soil
Rainfall (30 d)156 mm
Rainfall deficit−22% vs normal
Soil moisture0.20 m³/m³
Soil typeShallow peat
Drainagefair
Water statusdeficit
Yield & operations
Current yield18.0 t/ha
Forecast yield17.3 t/ha
Target21.9 t/ha
Harvesting interval10 days
NDVI-like score0.65
Disease riskNettle caterpillar 24%
Historical FFB production
Monthly tonnes · 12 m actual 898 t vs budget 950 t (−5.6%)
Fertilizer history
Applications last 12 months
| Date | Product | kg/palm | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-14 | NPK 12-12-17-2 | 2.00 | on-time |
| 2026-01-20 | Dolomite | 1.50 | on-time |
| 2026-03-18 | MOP (KCl) | 1.75 | late |
| 2026-07-29 | NPK 12-12-17-2 + Borate | 2.25 | late |
Pest & disease history
Census, treatments and surveys
| Date | Pest / disease | Severity | Action taken |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Rat damage | Low | Barn owl nest box check |