OER Root Cause Analysis

Mill A · explainable AI across grading, weighbridge, GPS, SCADA and laboratory dataAll operations

Why did OER decline at Mill A? AI root-cause analysisConfidence86%

OER declined from 22.3% to 21.6% in 7 days (−0.7 pp ≈ 7.6 t CPO/day). Four drivers explain 92% of the decline — three originate upstream of the mill gate.

OER bridge — last week to today (pp)

Contribution to decline

Increased overripe FFB (6.1% → 10.6%)32% · −0.22 pp

FFB grading / CV

Longer harvest-to-mill time (17h → 26h)27% · −0.19 pp

Weighbridge + GPS

Sterilizer ST-04 pressure variation21% · −0.15 pp

SCADA / IoT

Higher fruit moisture12% · −0.08 pp

Laboratory

Other factors8% · −0.06 pp

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AI conclusion

Crop quality and logistics (59%) outweigh the mill-internal cause, but the sterilizer is the fastest lever: ST-04 bearing wear is already predicted to fail within 11 days.

Causal graph — how plantation, logistics and assets drive OER

Learned from 3 years of grading, weighbridge, GPS, SCADA and lab data · edge width = contribution · click a node to open its evidence

PlantationLogisticsMill assetProcessOutcome

Evidence by driver

30-day signal per driver · shaded = anomaly window from 21 Sep

Overripe FFB

6.2 % → 10.6 %

32%

Overripe share at CV grading rose from 6.1% to 10.6% after missed harvesting rounds in Estate B Div 2 and Estate E.

FFB grading / CVOpen

Harvest-to-mill time

17.0 h → 26.0 h

27%

Average harvest-to-mill time 17 h → 26 h; truck queue at weighbridge peaked at 2.4 h on 26 Sep.

Weighbridge + GPSOpen

Sterilizer pressure variation

0.13 bar σ → 0.40 bar σ

21%

ST-04 cycle pressure σ tripled since 21 Sep, coinciding with the door-drive bearing vibration anomaly.

SCADA / IoTOpen

Fruit moisture

21.9 % → 22.8 %

12%

Lab moisture +1.6 pp after 64 mm rainfall in Estate B; wet bunches raise sludge oil loss.

LaboratoryOpen

Source systems per driver

Data lineage behind every contribution

Driver	Source systems	Frequency	Share
Overripe FFB	FFB grading (computer vision) at CP & receptionHarvesting round plan	Per load · real-time 98% coverage	32%
Harvest-to-mill time	Weighbridge (arrival stamp)Truck GPS telematicse-Harvest cut time	Per trip 94% matched	27%
Sterilizer pressure variation	SCADA sterilizer PLCIoT vibration & temperature (ST-04)	1 s / 10 s 99.6% uptime	21%
Fruit moisture	Mill laboratory (LIMS)Weather stations (Estate B/E)	4× per shift / hourly 100%	12%
Other factors	NIR oil-loss analyzerCMMS work orders	Hourly / event 91%	8%

Recommended investigation

Generated from the root-cause model · ranked by expected OER recovery

Inspect sterilizer pressure control

Check ST-04 door-drive bearing, pressure transmitter and PID tuning on Line 2; compare cycle traces with ST-01..03.

Analyze fruit arrival time

Reconcile cut time vs weighbridge arrival per trip for Estate B/E; identify late dispatch waves and queue build-up after 14:00.

Inspect FFB quality by estate

Overripe share: Estate B Div 2 12.9% · Estate E 11.8% · Estate A 7.4%. Verify harvesting round compliance and CP grading.

ACT-003 · Recover Mill A OER: sterilizer pressure + crop evacuation

Restore to 22.1% · ≈ Rp 24.59 bn/yr

Pending Approval

Contributions are model-estimated (SHAP on OER prediction model v2.4) from synthetic data. Decision support — requires validation by Mill Manager.