ACT-002 Replace ST-04 door-drive bearing in low-intake windowPending Approval· Avoids ~8 h downtime · exposure avoided Rp 1.09 bnAction Center →
ST-04CRITICALCriticality ASterilizer AI-flagged
Manufacturer
Nusantara Engineering
Model
HS-40 Horizontal
Location
Mill A · Sterilization
Commissioned
2018-09-27
Age
8 years
Operating hours
51,056 h
Utilization
76%
Availability (90 d)
92.4%
MTBF / MTTR
1,834 h / 5.7 h
Replacement cost
Rp 4.02 bn
Sensors
vibration, temperature, pressure, current
Region
Sumatra
Health score
Predictive maintenance
Asset Failure Prediction v3.2 · gradient-boosted survival model on IoT, SCADA and CMMS history · refreshed 06:52
Confidence89%
Health score
63/100
Failure probability
82%7 days
Remaining useful life
11days
Anomaly score
0.910–1
Likely cause
Bearing degradation — door drive assembly (BR-6208)
Recommendation · inspect within 12 h
Inspect bearing assembly within 12 hours; replace during low-intake window
What the model sees
Confidence89%Vibration on the ST-04 door-drive bearing started rising on 19 Sep — nine days ago — with temperature following two days later. The pattern matches the Nov 2025 seizure of the same bearing (lubricant contaminated by condensate). At the current slope, vibration reaches the 7.1 mm/s alarm limit in ~11 days. Unplanned failure would stop Line 2 for ~9 h at peak crop.
Why this prediction — top drivers (pp of failure probability)
Baseline failure rate for class ≈ 12% · bars push probability up or down
Vibration RMS trend (bearing)
+26 pp
Bearing housing temperature
+16 pp
Cycle pressure variation
+11 pp
Door-drive motor current
+8.0 pp
Lubrication interval exceeded
+6.0 pp
Prior failure, same mode
+5.0 pp
Age / operating hours
+2.0 pp
Recent PM (door seal, Aug)
−4.0 pp
◀ lowers predictionraises ▶
Sensor trends & failure forecast
60-day history (daily) · dashed = model forecast · anomaly began 19 Sep
Vibration · mm/s RMS
Warning 4.5 · Alarm 7.1 mm/s RMSForecast reaches alarm ≈ 09 Oct · predicted failure ≈ 09 Oct (RUL 11 d)
Maintenance Decision Intelligence
Weighs failure probability, criticality, downtime impact, repair vs replacement cost, spare availability and production schedule
Decision inputs
Failure probability (7 d)82%
CriticalityClass A · production-critical
Downtime impactRp 165 m / h
Planned repair costRp 68 m
Replacement costRp 4.02 bn
Spare availabilityBR-6208: 0 local · transfer from other warehouse
Production scheduleWed 30 Sep, 22:00–04:00 (low-intake window)
Option suitability
Replace component93
Failure mode isolated to BR-6208; spare available in network
Schedule maintenance41
Fits next planned shutdown; balances risk and production
Repair now37
Stops the line during peak crop — restan and emergency premium
Replace asset22
Health 63/100 and age 8 yrs do not justify capex
Monitor8
Risk too high to run without intervention
Scenario comparison
OPTION A
Repair immediately
Stop line now, replace component using emergency transfer
Failure risk2%
Expected costRp 757 m
Planned downtime6 h
Lowest risk, but interrupts peak-intake processing and creates restan.
Recommended
OPTION B
Repair in low-production window
Transfer BR-6208 from Mill B; replace Wed 22:00–04:00
Failure risk7%
Expected costRp 199 m
Planned downtime6 h
Recommended — balances failure risk against production loss; spare available within 32 h.
OPTION C
Continue monitoring
Run to next scheduled shutdown (14 days)
Failure risk82%
Expected costRp 1.73 bn
Planned downtime0 h
Expected cost dominated by probability-weighted unplanned outage.
Recommendation: Replace component — in low-intake window (Option B)
Confidence87%Inspect the door-drive bearing within 12 h, transfer 1× BR-6208 from Mill B (ETA Tue 29 Sep, 16:00) and replace it on Wed 30 Sep, 22:00–04:00 (low-intake window). Option B keeps failure risk at 7% for Rp 199 m versus Rp 1.73 bn probability-weighted cost of running to failure — avoiding ~8 h of unplanned downtime.
Spare parts availability
Key parts for ST-04 across the warehouse network · home store WH-01
Cross-module: Inventory AI
BR-6208 · Bearing 6208-2RS (sterilizer door drive / conveyor)
Lead time 21 d · Rp 1.9 m/pcs · 30-d demand 5
WH-01 · Mill A (home)
0 pcs · SS 2
WH-02 · Mill B
3 pcs · SS 2
Supplier lead time 21 d vs RUL 11 d — transfer is the only way to repair before failure.
SEAL-ST-900 · Sterilizer door gasket 2.7 m
Lead time 28 d · Rp 7.8 m/pcs · 30-d demand 1.1
WH-01 · Mill A (home)
5 pcs · SS 1
WH-02 · Mill B
9 pcs · SS 1
VLV-DN150 · Steam valve DN150
Lead time 30 d · Rp 16.0 m/pcs · 30-d demand 0.8
WH-01 · Mill A (home)
5 pcs · SS 1
WH-02 · Mill B
7 pcs · SS 1
Maintenance records
CMMS history, open work orders, failure events and spares
| Work order | Type | Description | Created | Due | Technician | Cost | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WO-4118 | Predictive | AI-flagged: Bearing degradation | 2026-09-28 | 2026-09-30 | Unassigned | — | Open |