At Risk
Area26.3 ha
Age19 yr
VarietyPA-Tenera 305
Forecast20.9 t/ha
Gap−8.7%
Harvest round10 d
Bagworm20%
NDVI0.63
Replant rank#11 of 50
AI Yield Prediction
Yield Prediction v4.1 · gradient-boosted trees · retrained monthly
Confidence89%
Predicted FFB
20.9
t/ha · next 12 m
Target
22.9
t/ha · budget
Gap
−8.7%
−2.0 t/ha vs target
Predicted (next 12 m)
20.9
Target
22.9
Actual (last 12 m)
21.3
Feature contribution (SHAP, t/ha)
vs portfolio baselineRainfall deficit (3-mo lag)
−0.8
Harvesting interval
−0.3
Disease / pest pressure
−0.2
Soil moisture
−0.1
Vegetation index (NDVI)
−0.1
Palm age / maturity
−0.0
Fertilizer timing
0.0
◀ lowers predictionraises ▶
Model features
13 inputs used for this prediction · current values
Palm age19 yr (planted 2007)
Historical yield21.3 t/ha (rolling 12 m)
Rainfall (30 d)153 mm
Rainfall lag (3-mo)−26% vs normal
Temperature28.0 °C mean max
Soil moisture0.27 m³/m³
Fertilizer applicationAll rounds on time
Harvesting interval10 days
Planting density140 palms/ha
Soil characteristicsShallow peat
Pest incidents1 logged (12 m)
Vegetation indexNDVI 0.63
SeasonalityPeak crop (Sep–Nov index 1.17)
AI recommendations
Ranked by expected yield recovery
Why B38 is below plan
Confidence89%Forecast 20.9 vs 22.9 t/ha (−8.7%). Largest negative driver: Rainfall deficit (3-mo lag) (-0.79 t/ha). Recommended actions below are ranked by expected recovery.
1+0.5 t/ha
Moisture conservation
Spread EFB mulch (40 t/ha) in inter-rows; prioritise K to support drought tolerance.
2+0.2 t/ha
Restore 10-day harvest round
Current 10-day round increases loose fruit and overripe bunches; add 1 harvesting gang.
3+0.1 t/ha
Bagworm census & sanitation
Census and targeted treatment above economic threshold.
Decision support — agronomist validation required
Location & neighbours
Estate D blocks · colour = health status
Loading map…
Block attributes
Master data, sensors, satellite and field records
Identity & stand
Block IDB38
Estate · divisionEstate D · Division 2
Planted area26.3 ha
Planted year · age2007 · 19 yr
VarietyPA-Tenera 305
Palm population3,645 (140/ha)
Water & soil
Rainfall (30 d)153 mm
Rainfall deficit−26% vs normal
Soil moisture0.27 m³/m³
Soil typeShallow peat
Drainagegood
Water statusdeficit
Yield & operations
Current yield21.3 t/ha
Forecast yield20.9 t/ha
Target22.9 t/ha
Harvesting interval10 days
NDVI-like score0.63
Disease riskBagworm 20%
Historical FFB production
Monthly tonnes · 12 m actual 582 t vs budget 602 t (−3.4%)
Fertilizer history
Applications last 12 months
| Date | Product | kg/palm | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-14 | NPK 12-12-17-2 | 2.00 | on-time |
| 2026-01-20 | Dolomite | 1.50 | on-time |
| 2026-03-18 | MOP (KCl) | 1.75 | on-time |
| 2026-06-24 | NPK 12-12-17-2 + Borate | 2.25 | on-time |
Pest & disease history
Census, treatments and surveys
| Date | Pest / disease | Severity | Action taken |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Rat damage | Low | Barn owl nest box check |