At Risk
Area41.9 ha
Age14 yr
VarietyPA-Tenera 201
Forecast23.7 t/ha
Gap−14.7%
Harvest round8 d
Bagworm66%
NDVI0.62
Replant rank#14 of 50
AI Yield Prediction
Yield Prediction v4.1 · gradient-boosted trees · retrained monthly
Confidence85%
Predicted FFB
23.7
t/ha · next 12 m
Target
27.8
t/ha · budget
Gap
−14.7%
−4.1 t/ha vs target
Predicted (next 12 m)
23.7
Target
27.8
Actual (last 12 m)
23.9
Feature contribution (SHAP, t/ha)
vs portfolio baselinePalm age / maturity
+1.2
Disease / pest pressure
−0.6
Harvesting interval
+0.3
Rainfall deficit (3-mo lag)
−0.2
Fertilizer timing
+0.1
Soil moisture
−0.1
Vegetation index (NDVI)
+0.0
◀ lowers predictionraises ▶
Model features
13 inputs used for this prediction · current values
Palm age14 yr (planted 2012)
Historical yield23.9 t/ha (rolling 12 m)
Rainfall (30 d)188 mm
Rainfall lag (3-mo)−7% vs normal
Temperature27.4 °C mean max
Soil moisture0.28 m³/m³
Fertilizer applicationAll rounds on time
Harvesting interval8 days
Planting density136 palms/ha
Soil characteristicsUltisol (clay loam)
Pest incidents3 logged (12 m)
Vegetation indexNDVI 0.62
SeasonalityPeak crop (Sep–Nov index 1.17)
AI recommendations
Ranked by expected yield recovery
Why B27 is below plan
Confidence85%Forecast 23.7 vs 27.8 t/ha (−14.7%). Largest negative driver: Disease / pest pressure (-0.58 t/ha). Recommended actions below are ranked by expected recovery.
1+0.3 t/ha
Bagworm census & sanitation
Census and targeted treatment above economic threshold.
2+0.1 t/ha
Moisture conservation
Spread EFB mulch (40 t/ha) in inter-rows; prioritise K to support drought tolerance.
Decision support — agronomist validation required
Location & neighbours
Estate C blocks · colour = health status
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Block attributes
Master data, sensors, satellite and field records
Identity & stand
Block IDB27
Estate · divisionEstate C · Division 2
Planted area41.9 ha
Planted year · age2012 · 14 yr
VarietyPA-Tenera 201
Palm population5,510 (136/ha)
Water & soil
Rainfall (30 d)188 mm
Rainfall deficit−7% vs normal
Soil moisture0.28 m³/m³
Soil typeUltisol (clay loam)
Drainagegood
Water statusnormal
Yield & operations
Current yield23.9 t/ha
Forecast yield23.7 t/ha
Target27.8 t/ha
Harvesting interval8 days
NDVI-like score0.62
Disease riskBagworm 66%
Historical FFB production
Monthly tonnes · 12 m actual 1,139 t vs budget 1,165 t (−2.2%)
Fertilizer history
Applications last 12 months
| Date | Product | kg/palm | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-14 | NPK 12-12-17-2 | 2.00 | on-time |
| 2026-01-20 | Dolomite | 1.50 | on-time |
| 2026-03-18 | MOP (KCl) | 1.75 | on-time |
| 2026-06-24 | NPK 12-12-17-2 + Borate | 2.25 | on-time |
Pest & disease history
Census, treatments and surveys
| Date | Pest / disease | Severity | Action taken |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | Bagworm | Low | Census & marking |
| 2026-06-03 | Bagworm | Moderate | Targeted spraying (trunk injection) |
| 2026-09-12 | Bagworm | Elevated | Drone survey scheduled |