Critical
Area36.4 ha
Age16 yr
VarietyPA-Compact 12
Forecast23.1 t/ha
Gap−10.8%
Harvest round10 d
Ganoderma28%
NDVI0.61
Replant rank#10 of 50
AI Yield Prediction
Yield Prediction v4.1 · gradient-boosted trees · retrained monthly
Confidence89%
Predicted FFB
23.1
t/ha · next 12 m
Target
25.9
t/ha · budget
Gap
−10.8%
−2.8 t/ha vs target
Predicted (next 12 m)
23.1
Target
25.9
Actual (last 12 m)
23.6
Feature contribution (SHAP, t/ha)
vs portfolio baselineRainfall deficit (3-mo lag)
−0.9
Palm age / maturity
+0.8
Soil moisture
−0.4
Harvesting interval
−0.3
Disease / pest pressure
−0.3
Vegetation index (NDVI)
+0.1
Fertilizer timing
+0.1
◀ lowers predictionraises ▶
Model features
13 inputs used for this prediction · current values
Palm age16 yr (planted 2010)
Historical yield23.6 t/ha (rolling 12 m)
Rainfall (30 d)148 mm
Rainfall lag (3-mo)−31% vs normal
Temperature28.1 °C mean max
Soil moisture0.17 m³/m³
Fertilizer application1 round(s) late
Harvesting interval10 days
Planting density140 palms/ha
Soil characteristicsShallow peat
Pest incidents1 logged (12 m)
Vegetation indexNDVI 0.61
SeasonalityPeak crop (Sep–Nov index 1.17)
AI recommendations
Ranked by expected yield recovery
Why B24 is below plan
Confidence89%Forecast 23.1 vs 25.9 t/ha (−10.8%). Largest negative driver: Rainfall deficit (3-mo lag) (-0.94 t/ha). Recommended actions below are ranked by expected recovery.
1+0.6 t/ha
Moisture conservation
Spread EFB mulch (40 t/ha) in inter-rows; prioritise K to support drought tolerance.
2+0.3 t/ha
Water-table management
Close canal blocks to retain water; monitor soil moisture probes.
3+0.2 t/ha
Restore 10-day harvest round
Current 10-day round increases loose fruit and overripe bunches; add 1 harvesting gang.
4+0.2 t/ha
Ganoderma census & sanitation
Field census within 7 days; isolate trenching and sanitation of infected palms; soil mounding.
Location & neighbours
Estate C blocks · colour = health status
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Block attributes
Master data, sensors, satellite and field records
Identity & stand
Block IDB24
Estate · divisionEstate C · Division 1
Planted area36.4 ha
Planted year · age2010 · 16 yr
VarietyPA-Compact 12
Palm population5,025 (140/ha)
Water & soil
Rainfall (30 d)148 mm
Rainfall deficit−31% vs normal
Soil moisture0.17 m³/m³
Soil typeShallow peat
Drainagegood
Water statusdeficit
Yield & operations
Current yield23.6 t/ha
Forecast yield23.1 t/ha
Target25.9 t/ha
Harvesting interval10 days
NDVI-like score0.61
Disease riskGanoderma 28%
Historical FFB production
Monthly tonnes · 12 m actual 900 t vs budget 943 t (−4.6%)
Fertilizer history
Applications last 12 months
| Date | Product | kg/palm | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-14 | NPK 12-12-17-2 | 2.00 | on-time |
| 2026-01-20 | Dolomite | 1.50 | on-time |
| 2026-03-18 | MOP (KCl) | 1.75 | late |
| 2026-06-24 | NPK 12-12-17-2 + Borate | 2.25 | on-time |
Pest & disease history
Census, treatments and surveys
| Date | Pest / disease | Severity | Action taken |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Rat damage | Low | Barn owl nest box check |