Block B20 — 360° view

Estate B · Division 2 · Sumatra · supplies Mill A

Healthy

Area37.1 ha

Age11 yr

VarietyPA-Tenera 305

Forecast28.8 t/ha

Gap−4.0%

Harvest round10 d

Bagworm28%

NDVI0.73

Replant rank#44 of 50

AI Yield Prediction

Yield Prediction v4.1 · gradient-boosted trees · retrained monthly

Confidence91%

Predicted FFB

28.8

t/ha · next 12 m

Target

30.0

t/ha · budget

Gap

−4.0%

−1.2 t/ha vs target

Predicted (next 12 m)

28.8

Target

30.0

Actual (last 12 m)

28.9

Feature contribution (SHAP, t/ha)

vs portfolio baseline

Palm age / maturity

+1.5

Harvesting interval

−0.3

Disease / pest pressure

−0.3

Vegetation index (NDVI)

+0.2

Soil moisture

−0.1

Rainfall deficit (3-mo lag)

−0.0

Fertilizer timing

−0.0

◀ lowers predictionraises ▶

Prediction interval ±2.3 t/ha (80%). Synthetic model output.

Model features

13 inputs used for this prediction · current values

Palm age11 yr (planted 2015)

Historical yield28.9 t/ha (rolling 12 m)

Rainfall (30 d)213 mm

Rainfall lag (3-mo)−1% vs normal

Temperature27.2 °C mean max

Soil moisture0.27 m³/m³

Fertilizer application1 round(s) late

Harvesting interval10 days

Planting density143 palms/ha

Soil characteristicsAlluvial

Pest incidents1 logged (12 m)

Vegetation indexNDVI 0.73

SeasonalityPeak crop (Sep–Nov index 1.17)

AI recommendations

Ranked by expected yield recovery

Why B20 is below plan

Confidence91%

Forecast 28.8 vs 30.0 t/ha (−4.0%). Largest negative driver: Harvesting interval (-0.25 t/ha). Recommended actions below are ranked by expected recovery.

Restore 10-day harvest round

Current 10-day round increases loose fruit and overripe bunches; add 1 harvesting gang.

+0.2 t/ha

Bagworm census & sanitation

Census and targeted treatment above economic threshold.

+0.2 t/ha

Decision support — agronomist validation required

Location & neighbours

Estate B blocks · colour = health status

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Block attributes

Master data, sensors, satellite and field records

Identity & stand

Block IDB20

Estate · divisionEstate B · Division 2

Planted area37.1 ha

Planted year · age2015 · 11 yr

VarietyPA-Tenera 305

Palm population5,231 (143/ha)

Water & soil

Rainfall (30 d)213 mm

Rainfall deficit−1% vs normal

Soil moisture0.27 m³/m³

Soil typeAlluvial

Drainagegood

Water statusnormal

Yield & operations

Current yield28.9 t/ha

Forecast yield28.8 t/ha

Target30.0 t/ha

Harvesting interval10 days

NDVI-like score0.73

Disease riskBagworm 28%

Historical FFB production

Monthly tonnes · 12 m actual 1,083 t vs budget 1,113 t (−2.7%)

Agronomy snapshot

Leaf analysis 12 Aug 2026 · water sector B-08

2.73%

0.158%

1.13%

0.3%

19.8ppm

Marker = critical leaf level (frond 17).

Fertilizer history

Applications last 12 months

Date	Product	kg/palm	Status
2025-10-14	NPK 12-12-17-2	2.00	on-time
2026-01-20	Dolomite	1.50	on-time
2026-03-18	MOP (KCl)	1.75	late
2026-06-24	NPK 12-12-17-2 + Borate	2.25	on-time

Pest & disease history

Census, treatments and surveys

Date	Pest / disease	Severity	Action taken
2026-04-22	Rat damage	Low	Barn owl nest box check