Critical
Area27.9 ha
Age15 yr
VarietyPA-Tenera 305
Forecast24.4 t/ha
Gap−12.9%
Harvest round13 d
Ganoderma72%
NDVI0.49
Replant rank#2 of 50
AI Yield Prediction
Yield Prediction v4.1 · gradient-boosted trees · retrained monthly
Confidence88%
Predicted FFB
24.4
t/ha · next 12 m
Target
28.0
t/ha · budget
Gap
−12.9%
−3.6 t/ha vs target
Predicted (next 12 m)
24.4
Target
28.0
Actual (last 12 m)
25.2
Feature contribution (SHAP, t/ha)
vs portfolio baselineRainfall deficit (3-mo lag)
−1.0
Palm age / maturity
+1.0
Harvesting interval
−1.0
Fertilizer timing
−0.6
Disease / pest pressure
−0.6
Soil moisture
−0.3
Vegetation index (NDVI)
+0.0
◀ lowers predictionraises ▶
Model features
13 inputs used for this prediction · current values
Palm age15 yr (planted 2011)
Historical yield25.2 t/ha (rolling 12 m)
Rainfall (30 d)137 mm
Rainfall lag (3-mo)−34% vs normal
Temperature28.2 °C mean max
Soil moisture0.21 m³/m³
Fertilizer application1 round(s) late
Harvesting interval13 days
Planting density142 palms/ha
Soil characteristicsUltisol (clay loam)
Pest incidents3 logged (12 m)
Vegetation indexNDVI 0.49
SeasonalityPeak crop (Sep–Nov index 1.17)
AI recommendations
Ranked by expected yield recovery
Why B17 is 13% below plan
Confidence88%B17 is forecast at 24.4 t/ha vs 28.0 t/ha target (−13%). Three compounding drivers: a 34% rainfall deficit with a 3-month lag hitting bunch development now, the Q3 NPK round applied 5 weeks late, and a 13-day harvest round. Separately, the disease model puts Ganoderma risk at 72% — drone NDVI shows a canopy-thinning cluster in the NE corner next to B12 (58%). Acting on the top three actions recovers an estimated 1.9 t/ha within 12 months and contains spread.
1+0.6 t/ha
Moisture conservation
Spread EFB mulch (40 t/ha) in inter-rows; prioritise K to support drought tolerance.
2+0.6 t/ha
Restore 10-day harvest round
Current 13-day round increases loose fruit and overripe bunches; add 1 harvesting gang.
3+0.4 t/ha
Apply delayed K round
MOP 1.75 kg/palm + borate within 14 days; confirm NPK stock at WH-03.
4+0.4 t/ha
Ganoderma census & sanitation
Field census within 7 days; isolate trenching and sanitation of infected palms; soil mounding.
Location & neighbours
Estate B blocks · colour = health status
Loading map…
Block attributes
Master data, sensors, satellite and field records
Identity & stand
Block IDB17
Estate · divisionEstate B · Division 2
Planted area27.9 ha
Planted year · age2011 · 15 yr
VarietyPA-Tenera 305
Palm population3,819 (142/ha)
Water & soil
Rainfall (30 d)137 mm
Rainfall deficit−34% vs normal
Soil moisture0.21 m³/m³
Soil typeUltisol (clay loam)
Drainagegood
Water statusdeficit
Yield & operations
Current yield25.2 t/ha
Forecast yield24.4 t/ha
Target28.0 t/ha
Harvesting interval13 days
NDVI-like score0.49
Disease riskGanoderma 72%
Historical FFB production
Monthly tonnes · 12 m actual 741 t vs budget 781 t (−5.1%)
Fertilizer history
Applications last 12 months
| Date | Product | kg/palm | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-14 | NPK 12-12-17-2 | 2.00 | on-time |
| 2026-01-20 | Dolomite | 1.50 | on-time |
| 2026-03-18 | MOP (KCl) | 1.75 | on-time |
| 2026-07-29 | NPK 12-12-17-2 + Borate | 2.25 | late · 5 wks |
Pest & disease history
Census, treatments and surveys
| Date | Pest / disease | Severity | Action taken |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | Ganoderma | Low | Census & marking |
| 2026-06-03 | Ganoderma | Moderate | Sanitation of 6 infected palms |
| 2026-09-12 | Ganoderma | Elevated | Drone survey scheduled |