Revenue & Profitability Simulation
What-if engine: prices, extraction, crop, downtime, input costs and FX → EBITDAAll operations
Synthetic assumptions — scenario estimates only. Not a budget, forecast or investment advice.
Scenario levers
Annualised · All operations
Presets
0%
0%
0.00 pp
0%
0%
0%
0%
16,350
FFB
661k t
Base 661k t±0.0%
CPO
145k t
Base 145k t±0.0%
PK
33.9k t
Base 33.9k t±0.0%
Revenue
Rp 2.28 T
Base Rp 2.28 T±0.0%
Operating cost
Rp 1.22 T
Base Rp 1.22 T±0.0%
EBITDA proxy
Rp 1.06 T
Base Rp 1.06 T±0.0%
Margin 46.4% → 46.4%
EBITDA bridge — baseline to scenario
IDR bn · sequential attribution by lever
Increase Decrease Total
Sensitivity (tornado)
EBITDA change vs current scenario, IDR bn · one lever at a time
Baseline vs scenario
Annual volumes and P&L proxy
| Line item | Baseline | Scenario | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| FFB processed t | 660,600 | 660,600 | ±0.0% |
| of which own estates t | 595,018 | 595,018 | ±0.0% |
| Effective OER % | 21.93 | 21.93 | ±0.00 pp |
| CPO production t | 144,901 | 144,901 | ±0.0% |
| PK production t | 33,919 | 33,919 | ±0.0% |
| Revenue | Rp 2.28 T | Rp 2.28 T | ±0.0% |
| CPO sales | Rp 2.00 T | Rp 2.00 T | ±0.0% |
| PK sales | Rp 278 bn | Rp 278 bn | ±0.0% |
| Operating cost | Rp 1.22 T | Rp 1.22 T | ±0.0% |
| Fertilizer | Rp 205 bn | Rp 205 bn | ±0.0% |
| Fuel | Rp 54.7 bn | Rp 54.7 bn | ±0.0% |
| Estate upkeep & harvesting | Rp 424 bn | Rp 424 bn | ±0.0% |
| Third-party FFB purchase | Rp 193 bn | Rp 193 bn | ±0.0% |
| Mill processing & downtime | Rp 85.1 bn | Rp 85.1 bn | ±0.0% |
| Overheads (G&A) | Rp 258 bn | Rp 258 bn | ±0.0% |
| EBITDA (proxy) | Rp 1.06 T | Rp 1.06 T | ±0.0% |
Scenario read-out
Confidence72%Baseline EBITDA proxy is Rp 1.06 T (46.4% margin). EBITDA is most sensitive to CPO price and FFB production — pick a preset or move a lever.
Operational levers under management control (OER +0.3 pp, downtime −10%) are worth ≈ Rp 29.2 bn/yr — linked to the Mill A recovery plan.
Assumptions
Synthetic — for demonstration
Base prices: CPO Rp 13,800/kg · PK Rp 8,200/kg · USD/IDR 16,350 (90% price pass-through).
Estate cost Rp 1.15 m/t own FFB (fertilizer 30%, fuel 8%) · third-party FFB Rp 2,950/kg.
Mill processing Rp 118k/t · baseline downtime 3.2% of hours (0.04 pp OER loss per pp).
Volumes: rolling 12-month estate production for all operations + third-party FFB share by mill.