TH-01RUNNINGCriticality AThresher
Manufacturer
Nusantara Engineering
Model
DT-1800
Location
Mill A · Threshing
Commissioned
2011-02-02
Age
15 years
Operating hours
86,198 h
Utilization
73%
Availability (90 d)
96.4%
MTBF / MTTR
2,143 h / 9.1 h
Replacement cost
Rp 1.97 bn
Sensors
vibration, current, rpm, temperature
Region
Sumatra
Health score
Predictive maintenance
Asset Failure Prediction v3.2 · gradient-boosted survival model on IoT, SCADA and CMMS history · refreshed 06:52
Confidence86%
Health score
78/100
Failure probability
18%7 days
Remaining useful life
163days
Anomaly score
0.180–1
Likely cause
No abnormal failure mode detected
Recommendation
Continue condition monitoring; next PM as scheduled
What the model sees
Confidence86%All monitored signals are within normal bands. Failure probability 18% over 7 days; continue condition monitoring and scheduled PM.
Why this prediction — top drivers (pp of failure probability)
Baseline failure rate for class ≈ 12% · bars push probability up or down
Vibration RMS trend
+5.9 pp
Age / operating hours
+3.8 pp
Motor current / load
+3.6 pp
Speed deviation
+2.4 pp
Temperature deviation
+1.4 pp
Recent preventive maintenance
−2.0 pp
◀ lowers predictionraises ▶
Sensor trends & failure forecast
60-day history (daily) · dashed = model forecast · anomaly began 14 Sep
Vibration · mm/s RMS
Warning 4.5 · Alarm 7.1 mm/s RMS
Maintenance Decision Intelligence
Weighs failure probability, criticality, downtime impact, repair vs replacement cost, spare availability and production schedule
Decision inputs
Failure probability (7 d)18%
CriticalityClass A · production-critical
Downtime impactRp 165 m / h
Planned repair costRp 59 m
Replacement costRp 1.97 bn
Spare availabilityBR-22220: in local store
Production schedulePeak crop · next shutdown Sun
Option suitability
Monitor72
Failure risk low; condition monitoring sufficient
Schedule maintenance57
Fits next planned shutdown; balances risk and production
Replace asset33
Health 78/100 and age 15 yrs do not justify capex
Replace component17
No single failing component identified
Repair now2
Stops the line during peak crop — restan and emergency premium
Scenario comparison
OPTION A
Repair immediately
Stop line now, replace component using emergency transfer
Failure risk2%
Expected costRp 475 m
Planned downtime4 h
Lowest risk, but interrupts peak-intake processing and creates restan.
OPTION B
Repair in low-production window
Replace at next planned shutdown
Failure risk6%
Expected costRp 138 m
Planned downtime4 h
Balances failure risk against production loss at the next planned shutdown.
Recommended
OPTION C
Continue monitoring
Run to next scheduled shutdown (14 days)
Failure risk18%
Expected costRp 278 m
Planned downtime0 h
Recommended — risk is low; keep condition monitoring and standard PM.
Recommendation: Monitor
Confidence80%Continue condition monitoring; next PM as scheduled. Option C expected cost Rp 278 m vs Rp 278 m if left to run; residual risk 18%.
Spare parts availability
Key parts for TH-01 across the warehouse network · home store WH-01
Cross-module: Inventory AI
BR-22220 · Spherical roller bearing 22220 (thresher)
Lead time 35 d · Rp 9.7 m/pcs · 30-d demand 0.8
WH-01 · Mill A (home)
2 pcs · SS 1
WH-02 · Mill B
6 pcs · SS 1
CHN-TH-40 · CHN-TH-40
Lead time 14 d · Rp 0/pcs
Not stocked — procured on demand.
Maintenance records
CMMS history, open work orders, failure events and spares
No open work orders — asset on standard PM schedule.