PR-04RUNNINGCriticality APress
Manufacturer
Pressindo
Model
SP-20 Twin
Location
Mill A · Pressing
Commissioned
2009-12-16
Age
17 years
Operating hours
99,083 h
Utilization
93%
Availability (90 d)
96.8%
MTBF / MTTR
1,316 h / 6.5 h
Replacement cost
Rp 2.41 bn
Sensors
current, pressure, vibration, temperature, rpm
Region
Sumatra
Health score
Predictive maintenance
Asset Failure Prediction v3.2 · gradient-boosted survival model on IoT, SCADA and CMMS history · refreshed 06:52
Confidence86%
Health score
78/100
Failure probability
14%7 days
Remaining useful life
180days
Anomaly score
0.180–1
Likely cause
No abnormal failure mode detected
Recommendation
Continue condition monitoring; next PM as scheduled
What the model sees
Confidence86%All monitored signals are within normal bands. Failure probability 14% over 7 days; continue condition monitoring and scheduled PM.
Why this prediction — top drivers (pp of failure probability)
Baseline failure rate for class ≈ 12% · bars push probability up or down
Age / operating hours
+4.3 pp
Motor current / load
+4.2 pp
Pressure variation
+2.6 pp
Vibration RMS trend
+1.7 pp
Temperature deviation
+1.0 pp
Speed deviation
+0.5 pp
Recent preventive maintenance
−2.0 pp
◀ lowers predictionraises ▶
Sensor trends & failure forecast
60-day history (daily) · dashed = model forecast · anomaly began 14 Sep
Motor current · % FLA
Warning 88 · Alarm 96 % FLA
No degradation trend — forecast shown only when the model detects a trajectory toward the failure threshold (forecast available for vibration & temperature).
Maintenance Decision Intelligence
Weighs failure probability, criticality, downtime impact, repair vs replacement cost, spare availability and production schedule
Decision inputs
Failure probability (7 d)14%
CriticalityClass A · production-critical
Downtime impactRp 165 m / h
Planned repair costRp 72 m
Replacement costRp 2.41 bn
Spare availabilitySCR-PR-15: in local store
Production schedulePeak crop · next shutdown Sun
Option suitability
Monitor76
Failure risk low; condition monitoring sufficient
Schedule maintenance50
Fits next planned shutdown; balances risk and production
Replace asset37
Asset 17 yrs — evaluate capex replacement
Replace component13
No single failing component identified
Repair now2
Stops the line during peak crop — restan and emergency premium
Scenario comparison
OPTION A
Repair immediately
Stop line now, replace component using emergency transfer
Failure risk2%
Expected costRp 488 m
Planned downtime4 h
Lowest risk, but interrupts peak-intake processing and creates restan.
OPTION B
Repair in low-production window
Replace at next planned shutdown
Failure risk5%
Expected costRp 151 m
Planned downtime4 h
Balances failure risk against production loss at the next planned shutdown.
Recommended
OPTION C
Continue monitoring
Run to next scheduled shutdown (14 days)
Failure risk14%
Expected costRp 222 m
Planned downtime0 h
Recommended — risk is low; keep condition monitoring and standard PM.
Recommendation: Monitor
Confidence80%Continue condition monitoring; next PM as scheduled. Option C expected cost Rp 222 m vs Rp 222 m if left to run; residual risk 14%.
Spare parts availability
Key parts for PR-04 across the warehouse network · home store WH-01
Cross-module: Inventory AI
SCR-PR-15 · Press screw set SP-15
Lead time 45 d · Rp 48.0 m/set · 30-d demand 1
WH-01 · Mill A (home)
1 set · SS 1
WH-02 · Mill B
7 set · SS 1
CONE-PR-15 · Press cone SP-15
Lead time 40 d · Rp 12.5 m/pcs · 30-d demand 1.1
WH-01 · Mill A (home)
6 pcs · SS 1
WH-02 · Mill B
7 pcs · SS 1
BR-6208 · Bearing 6208-2RS (sterilizer door drive / conveyor)
Lead time 21 d · Rp 1.9 m/pcs · 30-d demand 5
WH-01 · Mill A (home)
0 pcs · SS 2
WH-02 · Mill B
3 pcs · SS 2
Maintenance records
CMMS history, open work orders, failure events and spares
No open work orders — asset on standard PM schedule.