BL-03WARNINGCriticality ABoiler AI-flagged
Manufacturer
Samudra Thermal
Model
ST-600
Location
Mill B · Utilities
Commissioned
2016-03-13
Age
10 years
Operating hours
59,689 h
Utilization
93%
Availability (90 d)
95.8%
MTBF / MTTR
3,099 h / 9.6 h
Replacement cost
Rp 20.39 bn
Sensors
pressure, temperature, vibration
Region
Kalimantan
Health score
Predictive maintenance
Asset Failure Prediction v3.2 · gradient-boosted survival model on IoT, SCADA and CMMS history · refreshed 06:52
Confidence86%
Health score
74/100
Failure probability
38%7 days
Remaining useful life
31days
Anomaly score
0.580–1
Likely cause
Economiser tube fouling — flue gas temp +18 °C
Recommendation
Soot blowing and tube inspection within 7 days
What the model sees
Confidence86%Economiser tube fouling — flue gas temp +18 °C. Failure probability 38% over 7 days and RUL ≈ 31 days. Soot blowing and tube inspection within 7 days.
Why this prediction — top drivers (pp of failure probability)
Baseline failure rate for class ≈ 12% · bars push probability up or down
Pressure variation
+14 pp
Temperature deviation
+8.8 pp
Vibration RMS trend
+5.8 pp
Age / operating hours
+2.5 pp
Recent preventive maintenance
−4.0 pp
◀ lowers predictionraises ▶
Sensor trends & failure forecast
60-day history (daily) · dashed = model forecast · anomaly began 14 Sep
Pressure · bar
Warning 3.2 · Alarm 3.4 bar
No degradation trend — forecast shown only when the model detects a trajectory toward the failure threshold (forecast available for vibration & temperature).
Maintenance Decision Intelligence
Weighs failure probability, criticality, downtime impact, repair vs replacement cost, spare availability and production schedule
Decision inputs
Failure probability (7 d)38%
CriticalityClass A · production-critical
Downtime impactRp 165 m / h
Planned repair costRp 612 m
Replacement costRp 20.39 bn
Spare availabilityTUBE-BL-51: in local store
Production schedulePeak crop · next shutdown Sun
Option suitability
Schedule maintenance89
Fits next planned shutdown; balances risk and production
Monitor52
Risk too high to run without intervention
Replace component36
No single failing component identified
Replace asset23
Health 74/100 and age 10 yrs do not justify capex
Repair now8
Stops the line during peak crop — restan and emergency premium
Scenario comparison
OPTION A
Repair immediately
Stop line now, replace component using emergency transfer
Failure risk2%
Expected costRp 1.03 bn
Planned downtime4 h
Lowest risk, but interrupts peak-intake processing and creates restan.
Recommended
OPTION B
Repair in low-production window
Replace at next planned shutdown
Failure risk13%
Expected costRp 691 m
Planned downtime4 h
Recommended — balances failure risk against production loss at the next planned shutdown.
OPTION C
Continue monitoring
Run to next scheduled shutdown (14 days)
Failure risk38%
Expected costRp 1.22 bn
Planned downtime0 h
Expected cost dominated by probability-weighted unplanned outage.
Recommendation: Schedule maintenance
Confidence80%Soot blowing and tube inspection within 7 days. Option B expected cost Rp 691 m vs Rp 1.22 bn if left to run; residual risk 13%.
Spare parts availability
Key parts for BL-03 across the warehouse network · home store WH-02
Cross-module: Inventory AI
TUBE-BL-51 · Boiler tube 51 mm (per length)
Lead time 35 d · Rp 4.1 m/length · 30-d demand 6
WH-02 · Mill B (home)
3 length · SS 4
WH-01 · Mill A
12 length · SS 3
FAN-ID-75 · FAN-ID-75
Lead time 14 d · Rp 0/pcs
Not stocked — procured on demand.
Maintenance records
CMMS history, open work orders, failure events and spares
| Work order | Type | Description | Created | Due | Technician | Cost | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WO-4272 | Predictive | AI-flagged: Economiser tube fouling | 2026-09-28 | 2026-09-30 | Unassigned | — | Open |