BL-02RUNNINGCriticality ABoiler
Manufacturer
Boilerindo
Model
WTB-45
Location
Mill A · Utilities
Commissioned
2015-06-09
Age
11 years
Operating hours
70,890 h
Utilization
85%
Availability (90 d)
96.8%
MTBF / MTTR
4,044 h / 6.6 h
Replacement cost
Rp 20.33 bn
Sensors
pressure, temperature, vibration
Region
Sumatra
Health score
Predictive maintenance
Asset Failure Prediction v3.2 · gradient-boosted survival model on IoT, SCADA and CMMS history · refreshed 06:52
Confidence86%
Health score
78/100
Failure probability
17%7 days
Remaining useful life
155days
Anomaly score
0.180–1
Likely cause
No abnormal failure mode detected
Recommendation
Continue condition monitoring; next PM as scheduled
What the model sees
Confidence86%All monitored signals are within normal bands. Failure probability 17% over 7 days; continue condition monitoring and scheduled PM.
Why this prediction — top drivers (pp of failure probability)
Baseline failure rate for class ≈ 12% · bars push probability up or down
Pressure variation
+5.5 pp
Temperature deviation
+3.4 pp
Age / operating hours
+2.8 pp
Vibration RMS trend
+2.2 pp
Recent preventive maintenance
−2.0 pp
◀ lowers predictionraises ▶
Sensor trends & failure forecast
60-day history (daily) · dashed = model forecast · anomaly began 14 Sep
Pressure · bar
Warning 3.2 · Alarm 3.4 bar
No degradation trend — forecast shown only when the model detects a trajectory toward the failure threshold (forecast available for vibration & temperature).
Maintenance Decision Intelligence
Weighs failure probability, criticality, downtime impact, repair vs replacement cost, spare availability and production schedule
Decision inputs
Failure probability (7 d)17%
CriticalityClass A · production-critical
Downtime impactRp 165 m / h
Planned repair costRp 610 m
Replacement costRp 20.33 bn
Spare availabilityTUBE-BL-51: in local store
Production schedulePeak crop · next shutdown Sun
Option suitability
Monitor73
Failure risk low; condition monitoring sufficient
Schedule maintenance55
Fits next planned shutdown; balances risk and production
Replace asset24
Health 78/100 and age 11 yrs do not justify capex
Replace component16
No single failing component identified
Repair now2
Stops the line during peak crop — restan and emergency premium
Scenario comparison
OPTION A
Repair immediately
Stop line now, replace component using emergency transfer
Failure risk2%
Expected costRp 1.03 bn
Planned downtime4 h
Lowest risk, but interrupts peak-intake processing and creates restan.
OPTION B
Repair in low-production window
Replace at next planned shutdown
Failure risk6%
Expected costRp 689 m
Planned downtime4 h
Balances failure risk against production loss at the next planned shutdown.
Recommended
OPTION C
Continue monitoring
Run to next scheduled shutdown (14 days)
Failure risk17%
Expected costRp 544 m
Planned downtime0 h
Recommended — risk is low; keep condition monitoring and standard PM.
Recommendation: Monitor
Confidence80%Continue condition monitoring; next PM as scheduled. Option C expected cost Rp 544 m vs Rp 544 m if left to run; residual risk 17%.
Spare parts availability
Key parts for BL-02 across the warehouse network · home store WH-01
Cross-module: Inventory AI
TUBE-BL-51 · Boiler tube 51 mm (per length)
Lead time 35 d · Rp 4.1 m/length · 30-d demand 4.3
WH-01 · Mill A (home)
12 length · SS 3
WH-02 · Mill B
3 length · SS 4
FAN-ID-75 · FAN-ID-75
Lead time 14 d · Rp 0/pcs
Not stocked — procured on demand.
Maintenance records
CMMS history, open work orders, failure events and spares
No open work orders — asset on standard PM schedule.